The Mortgage Bankers Association estimate cited by the CRE Finance Council now puts 2026 commercial real estate loan maturities at $875 billion, revised up from an earlier estimate of $663 billion. Most of the increase comes from loans that were due in 2025 and were extended or modified instead of repaid. The problem was pushed forward, not solved.
Banks hold about $396 billion of those maturities, roughly 45%. By property type, multifamily leads at $297 billion, followed by office at $167 billion and industrial and warehouse at $133 billion.
The pressure is showing
According to the CRE Finance Council's August 2026 update, based on Trepp data, the delinquency rate on commercial mortgage-backed securities held at 7.85%, while the share of loans in special servicing rose to 11.42%, the highest level since February 2013. Maturity is the main pressure point, not missed monthly payments: loans that reached their due date without being repaid made up 81% of newly delinquent balances in August.
Office is the clear outlier. Bank of America research cited in the update found that only 49% of conduit office loan balance maturing in 2026 through July was paid off, compared with 67% across all conduit loans.
Capital is available, but selective
Deutsche Bank research described financing conditions as broadly available but highly selective. Stronger properties are refinancing. Weaker ones struggle to raise enough to retire the existing debt.
What it means for owners and buyers
- Start early. If your loan matures within the next 12 to 24 months, find out now what a lender will underwrite, not at the deadline.
- Make the property lender-ready. Lenders focus on anything that adds uncertainty: environmental history, open permits, lease issues. Clearing those up widens your options.
- Compare refinancing with selling. For some owners, a well-prepared sale beats a smaller loan at a higher rate.
- For buyers: maturity pressure can bring quality properties to market from owners who need a clean exit.
This article is general market commentary for property owners and investors. It is not investment, legal or tax advice. Figures are as reported by the sources above on the dates shown.
